The Rising Star Method of handicapping is an objective approach to handicapping based entirely on objective past performance statistical data. The method was developed in 1986 using the technique of inductive and inferential statistics derived from straightforward concepts of probability theory.
The techniques of probability and statistical inference dates back to the mid eighteenth century and are used today in every field of engineering, science, business and management. The process of statistical inference is characterized by drawing conclusions about a population or universe based on observed data drawn from it.
Rising Star has developed a computer model that tracks 24 different performance statistics, assigns weighted factors to each statistic, compares each team in the match up and produces a predicted spread (expected value) for the event. The computer model also provides the probability of each team obtaining this predicted spread or expected value. The professional Oddsmaker in Las Vegas uses this same logical approach to determine his initial line, which is the statistical performance line and it compares closely to the Rising Star predicted spread. The Vegas Oddsmaker will then skew this statistical performance line to a point where each team has the same probability of obtaining the statistical line.
This skew will result in the "true line" where each team has equal odds of covering (1.00 to 1.00). An opening line at this "true line" will not necessarily result in an equal amount wagered on each side, which is his desired goal. Vegas will skew the "true line" based on key and/or major injuries and again based on their perception of how the betting public will wager. The Las Vegas Oddsmaker has a better perception of how the public will wager than anyone; since, he devotes extensive analyzes on the wager patterns of the betting public.
By working through the Rising Star Newsletter you will immediately know where the public is putting their money and how much. This is accomplished by determining how many points Las Vegas has skewed his line from the "true line".
The theory of getting balanced action and pocketing the vig (juice) is always the goal of the Oddsmakers; but, in the real world this rarely happens. On a typical 15 game NFL weekend, the major sports books will be in balance on 8 to 9 games with a 5% risk free return. One or two games may have major imbalance, which will cause the game to go off the board early in the week and reopen on game day as a circled game (limit on the wager amount) to reduce their risk. On the remaining 4 to 5 games they will be at risk $50,000 to $100,000 on each match up. On these 4 or 5 at risk games is where you will find Rising Star's recommended plays. This is also where Las Vegas turns the weekend into a Fantastic week for the sports book. To the sports book they could care less who wins the balanced games as they will take 5% of the total amount wagered no matter which team wins against the spread (ATS).
On the circled games they don't win much and they don't lose much as they have limited the amount wagered. If they win all of the 4 or 5 at risk games, their return is in excess of 9% of the total handle for the weekend.
Over the past nineteen years Las Vegas and Rising Star have won between 60% and 67% of these at risk games and that is why both of us are still in business.
The range of odds for each type of recommended play is determined by historical studies of the winning percentages against the Las Vegas line (ATS). In the ninteen years of publishing the Rising Star newsletter, our Top Rated Plays (at 62.0 %) have outperformed our Middle Rated Plays (at 58.9 %), which have outperformed our Lower Rated Plays (at 57.4 %). That is exactly what we strive for. To properly use our rating system you should wager more on the top rated plays than you do on the weaker plays. For any handicapping system that recommends wagering an equal amount of your bankroll on each play is only telling you that the system is unable to rate its plays.
The Rising Star recommended plays are obtained by entering your line on the members web page and instantaneously the site returns the probability and odds of covering the line along with the recommended play and the units to wager.
Rising Star Sports welcomes you to the only true Objective handicapping method in the industry. How a team does against the Las Vegas line (ATS) is the foundation that virtually every other handicapper builds his entire system on. There is one major flaw in this Subjective type foundation... as trends against the spread becomes well known to the betting public, the Las Vegas Oddsmaker is way ahead of the game and has already adjusted the line to compensate. Therefore, all trends, streaks and angles are doomed to fail as they will eventually reverse and seek a 50% balance, thanks to the professional Oddsmaker. Don't fall for the hype "Bury your Man"... if your man books the Subjective and keeps the Vegas line, he will out live the betting public by many prosperous years.
Being Objective in your handicapping will be lonely as you are leaning against the crowd; but, you will be a Winner! By being Objective in you wagering, you will become disciplined and with proper risk management you can use sports betting as an investment instead of a gamble. At the beginning of the season you should establish a sound money management system. Never wager more than you can afford to lose by only using Moines from discretionary income. Gambling involves more than ordinary risk and can be extremely risky; therefore, proper money management is of utmost importance to reduce your risk.
With proper risk management and discipline, sports betting can be very profitable.
Rising Star's record for the past 20 years is as follows:
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